Research

Since 2000, Kenya has experienced an increase in the frequency of droughts, significantly affecting agriculture and driving labor force migration. This paper investigates strategic migration patterns among farmers and pastoralists in response to repetitive droughts. I use fine-grained data that enables the capture of short-distance migration and heterogeneity, combining satellite-based data on daily rainfalls (CHIRPS) with exhaustive censuses from 1989,1999, and 2009. I use a two-way fixed-effect model to exploit the spatial variation in drought frequency across 2,518 sub-locations, comparing their demographic growth according to the number of dry-rainy seasons over each decade. First, I show that increased drought frequency triggers out-migration, as one additional drought decreases demographic growth by 1.7 p.p, equivalent to a 1\% population decline. This result is consistent within the [15; 65] age group, excluding other demographic effects and confirming migration as the driving factor. The main contribution of this paper is the identification of different migration strategies across livelihoods. Rural areas dominated by pastoral activities experience significant out-migration, leading to a rural-rural shift from pastoral to agriculture-oriented regions. Herders’ migration displays little heterogeneity, suggesting the migration of entire households and consistent with migration as a last resort. Agricultural rural areas are less vulnerable to drought and display significant heterogeneity. The results show the migration of the most educated individuals in the working age, while uneducated individuals are trapped in affected areas. This paper highlights the importance of using detailed data to understand diverse migration strategies, thereby facilitating the implementation of effective policies.

Western African Sahel faced severe droughts in the 1980s, affecting agricultural production and food security. In recent decades, farmers have faced uncertainty in the timing and amount of rainy seasons and are confronted with erratic rainfall with high interannual variations. Can the experience of past dry events reduce the vulnerability of households to short-term rainfall shocks? In this paper, I match three waves of panel household surveys focusing on agriculture in Nigeria (GHS, from 2010-2016) and high temporal resolution precipitation data set from the Climate Hazard Center (CHIRPS). I show evidence of the extreme importance of the long-dry period of the 1980s and identify more recent droughts in 2013/2015, which are in line with a change in the characteristics of the rainfall trends. Through a two-way-fixed effect strategy, I exploit the spatial variation of the exposition to the 2015 drought. First, I look at the short-term effects of being hit by a drought on agricultural production and food security indicators. I show that being hit by a drought decreases yields by 14%, and decreases the food diversity of households by around 1%. Second, I look at the impacts’ heterogeneity according to the plot’s experience, using the timing of the year of acquisition of the plot. I compare short-term droughts’ effects on households that acquired their first plot before the 1980s dry period to those that acquired it after. Results suggest that acquiring the land before 1985 attenuates the harmful effects of a climate shock, as these particular households have only a 3% reduction in their yields due to the 2015 drought. This is especially the case when households were severely hit in the 1980s. This result is only descriptive and can not lead to any causal interpretation. It might suggest that having a long-lasting experience under extreme dry events on cultivated land reduces vulnerability to rainfall variability.